The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations
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- Create Date：2021-07-05 09:55:44
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Dietrich Dörner
- ISBN：0201479486
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Summary
Why do we make mistakes？ Are there certain errors common to failure， whether in a complex enterprise or daily life？ In this truly indispensable book， Dietrich Dörner identifies what he calls the “logic of failure”—certain tendencies in our patterns of thought that， while appropriate to an older， simpler world， prove disastrous for the complex world we live in now。 Working with imaginative and often hilarious computer simulations， he analyzes the roots of catastrophe， showing city planners in the very act of creating gridlock and disaster， or public health authorities setting the scene for starvation。 The Logic of Failure is a compass for intelligent planning and decision-making that can sharpen the skills of managers， policymakers and everyone involved in the daily challenge of getting from point A to point B。
Reviews
Alex Barker
，
Full disclosure that I read this for a class and as a result skimmed some sections。 That said， this was a surprisingly excellent and useful read。 In short， Dörner's argument is that people are really， really bad at understanding the complexity of situations facing them。 Most people either latch on to a single facet of a problem they understand， or the first one that is presented to them， without digging in further。 The book is fairly short， and his explanations are intuitive with lots of interes Full disclosure that I read this for a class and as a result skimmed some sections。 That said， this was a surprisingly excellent and useful read。 In short， Dörner's argument is that people are really， really bad at understanding the complexity of situations facing them。 Most people either latch on to a single facet of a problem they understand， or the first one that is presented to them， without digging in further。 The book is fairly short， and his explanations are intuitive with lots of interesting implications -e。g。 why people believe in conspiracies。 I'd recommend for anyone。 。。。more
Brian Thorson
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I’ve read a lot of books this year that I wouldn’t recommend to everyone。 This one I do recommend to everyone， or at least everyone intent on improving their general thinking and problem solving abilities。 Dörner examines numerous thinking traps and methods to overcome them by examining a number of interesting case studies， both real and simulated。 He holds the reader’s attention and keeps the theoretical grounded in the practical。 At no point does Dörner recommend a single approach。 Instead， he I’ve read a lot of books this year that I wouldn’t recommend to everyone。 This one I do recommend to everyone， or at least everyone intent on improving their general thinking and problem solving abilities。 Dörner examines numerous thinking traps and methods to overcome them by examining a number of interesting case studies， both real and simulated。 He holds the reader’s attention and keeps the theoretical grounded in the practical。 At no point does Dörner recommend a single approach。 Instead， he presents a menu of thinking methods and reflection tools for one to employ to improve their thought and problem solving。 I highly recommend this book。 。。。more
Zablon
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Main takeaway “We human beings are creatures of the present。 But in the world of today we must learn to think in temporal configurations。 We must learn that there is a lag time between the execution of a measure and its effect。 We must learn to recognize “shapes” in time。 We must learn that events have not only their immediate， visible effects but long term repercussions as well。”
Matt Danner
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Very good， but a dense read。 This was translated from German in a very literal way。 Sometimes the sentence structure feels clunky for English speakers。That said， the translation is my only negative criticism。 I enjoyed the way the author broke down complex situations into a series of simple steps and events。 I don’t have any advanced training but was able to understand everything。Recommended for fans of Daniel Kahneman。 I found myself thinking of his pre-mortem technique often as I read this boo Very good， but a dense read。 This was translated from German in a very literal way。 Sometimes the sentence structure feels clunky for English speakers。That said， the translation is my only negative criticism。 I enjoyed the way the author broke down complex situations into a series of simple steps and events。 I don’t have any advanced training but was able to understand everything。Recommended for fans of Daniel Kahneman。 I found myself thinking of his pre-mortem technique often as I read this book。 。。。more
Ryan Clare
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Amazing book about interdependencies and decision making in complex situations。 Definitely recommend
Liquidlasagna
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There is a lot to learn from simulation-games， board or computer， in seeing how good or poor the modelling is of situation。One of the classics of poor decision making were some of the Therac-25 Radiation Therapy Machines where keys didn'[t work properly and people had to overide the controls and people got burned and died from the machines。one can look this creepy situation"For six unfortunate patients in 1986 and 1987， the Therac-25 did the unthinkable: it exposed them to massive overdoses of r There is a lot to learn from simulation-games， board or computer， in seeing how good or poor the modelling is of situation。One of the classics of poor decision making were some of the Therac-25 Radiation Therapy Machines where keys didn'[t work properly and people had to overide the controls and people got burned and died from the machines。one can look this creepy situation"For six unfortunate patients in 1986 and 1987， the Therac-25 did the unthinkable: it exposed them to massive overdoses of radiation， killing four and leaving two others with lifelong injuries。 During the investigation， it was determined that the root cause of the problem was twofold。 Firstly， the software controlling the machine contained bugs which proved to be fatal。 Secondly， the design of the machine relied on the controlling computer alone for safety。 There were no hardware interlocks or supervisory circuits to ensure that software bugs couldn’t result in catastrophic failures。""The case of the Therac-25 has become one of the most well-known killer software bugs in history。 " 。。。more
Santhushka
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This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 My
Gary Klein
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Outstanding book; check out my comments for some great quotes and some of my thoughts。
Daniel Frank
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When Cass Sunstein call a book a classic （with similar praise from Tim Harford）; it's definitely worth checking out。Until reading this book， I had no idea this type of thinking/analysis was a thing but now that I've the book， I can't believe I lived an existence without employing this type of analysis。The world is full of complex dynamic multi-variable interconnected problems that our brains systematically fail to comprehend。 Through experience dealing with these systems （and reading this book！） When Cass Sunstein call a book a classic （with similar praise from Tim Harford）; it's definitely worth checking out。Until reading this book， I had no idea this type of thinking/analysis was a thing but now that I've the book， I can't believe I lived an existence without employing this type of analysis。The world is full of complex dynamic multi-variable interconnected problems that our brains systematically fail to comprehend。 Through experience dealing with these systems （and reading this book！）， we can learn to overcome these heuristics。 We need to: - define clear goals- think non-linearly （and truly comprehend compound growth）- think of all possible solutions available- understand the problems that don't exist yet but could- prioritize the things we are optimizing for- seek feedback and learn from our actions- understand how different variables dynamically impact each other （beyond single cause and effect）- understand delayed feedback。This should be required reading for anyone in charge of ANYTHING！ 。。。more
John
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When I started reading the book， I found it very interesting to see the fails in the human way of thinking in complex situations。 Especially if you correlate this to computer programming and complex software systems。 But after a while the book theme was constantly repeating the same pattern: a simulation where people made bad decisions and an analysis what these bad decisions where。 At no point was there a mention on how to change this。 Only in the end did the author try to handle this question When I started reading the book， I found it very interesting to see the fails in the human way of thinking in complex situations。 Especially if you correlate this to computer programming and complex software systems。 But after a while the book theme was constantly repeating the same pattern: a simulation where people made bad decisions and an analysis what these bad decisions where。 At no point was there a mention on how to change this。 Only in the end did the author try to handle this question and the answer was kinda disappointing: the answer was "play more simulations"。 Well unfortunately， the author seems to fall for the trap he set。 He must keep in mind that a simulation is a software with some mathematical models。 Unfortunately though as the author correctly started before， life and thinking is not math。 So relying on math to teach you how to is also problematic。 I would prefer if the author tried to give hints in every scenario about how to avoid these mistakes instead of filling the book with scenarios of failures and in the end provide no clear suggestion （actually I would prefer no suggestion than a chapter of a couple of pages with the final "solution" of more simulations。。 。。。more
Michael Burnam-Fink
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The Logic of Failure is a popular translation of what appears to be some pretty hefty scholarly literature （I think-didn't bother to actually check 30 years of literature in German）， that is hindered by becoming largely accepted wisdom。 Dorner is a cognitive scientist who based this book on a series of studies of how people interacted with computer models: desertification in the Sahel， the economy and politics of a small town， predator and prey interactions。 These studies， along with some exampl The Logic of Failure is a popular translation of what appears to be some pretty hefty scholarly literature （I think-didn't bother to actually check 30 years of literature in German）， that is hindered by becoming largely accepted wisdom。 Dorner is a cognitive scientist who based this book on a series of studies of how people interacted with computer models: desertification in the Sahel， the economy and politics of a small town， predator and prey interactions。 These studies， along with some examples drawn from recent events like Chernobyl and military history， are used to explain failure a consequence of a lack of understanding of complex systems。Complex systems， interconnected networks with time-delays， buffering units， hidden keystone variables， and unclear indicators， are everywhere in the real world。 Unfortunately， human minds tend to think linearly and concretely。 Dorner documents several pathological thinking styles he encounters in his experiments。 Some people over-correct， making dramatic changes while chasing a pointer that drowned out any data in induced oscillations。 Some people get lost chasing irrelevant details， asking for more information rather than acting。 And some people get trapped in methodism， following a predetermined course of action in complete disregard of the information coming in。Against this， Dorner advocates for having a clear mental model of a system， discrete objectives， and a holistic sense of possible higher-order effects。 Make small changes， seek steady states， and do not try and race a chaotic system。 He points towards 'wisdom' with maddening vagueness。 If there's a major problem with this book， it's that it's been overtaken by the zeitgeist。 Dorner's methods are now children's toys rather than cutting edge science。 We all 'get' networks and complexity， but we still lack the language to truly understand them。 。。。more
Dana
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Read at the suggestion of a colleague， as we spiral toward project failure
Renee
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Found out about this book while reading The 25 Sales Habits。
Darrell E。
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One of those books policy makers and military leaders should read。 The premise is largely that you need to understand the system you are interacting in and that a single intervention will never do。 This is a fast read for someone who likely wrote the book in German then translated it into English himself。
Yates Buckley
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An unusual book and subject matter covering the experiments the author performed on different types of people （lay or expert） in tasks involving managing of virtual villages。 The main idea is humans are actually very bad at managing resources， and they are bad in certain near predictable ways。 We overreact， we obsess， we reframe situations and we do not understand processes that change with a delay in time。This book， this subject matter is of paramount importance， but I have not found much simil An unusual book and subject matter covering the experiments the author performed on different types of people （lay or expert） in tasks involving managing of virtual villages。 The main idea is humans are actually very bad at managing resources， and they are bad in certain near predictable ways。 We overreact， we obsess， we reframe situations and we do not understand processes that change with a delay in time。This book， this subject matter is of paramount importance， but I have not found much similar accessible text。 The actual writing is not amazing but the content is unique。 。。。more
Kathleen
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Interesting breakdown of what makes complex problems complex， and how we can train our brains to better assess problems in a dynamic world （hint: change over time and the specific conditions a problem exists within are often overlooked）。 However， Dörner relies a bit too heavily on results of experiments where participants play computer simulations （think academia's version of The Sims） to make his points; the 25th graph is only marginally more informative than the 10th。 The book drags， despite d Interesting breakdown of what makes complex problems complex， and how we can train our brains to better assess problems in a dynamic world （hint: change over time and the specific conditions a problem exists within are often overlooked）。 However， Dörner relies a bit too heavily on results of experiments where participants play computer simulations （think academia's version of The Sims） to make his points; the 25th graph is only marginally more informative than the 10th。 The book drags， despite discussing very thoughtful psychological findings。 Ends on a completely bizarre note that we should all just play video games to train our complex problem solving skills - really？ That's the best encouragement you can muster in the face of continued and predictable human failure？ 。。。more
Daniel
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Shallow most of the time。A large chunk of the book is about how systems change in time and respond to feedback， and how bad humans are handling it。 In other words， control theory is hard to do by hand even in controlled situations。 However， there isn't much theory， just some argumentation that humans can't associate past events with the current situation so they can't react properly。The final chapter has actionable advice to recognize situations that may lead to errors。 Shallow most of the time。A large chunk of the book is about how systems change in time and respond to feedback， and how bad humans are handling it。 In other words， control theory is hard to do by hand even in controlled situations。 However， there isn't much theory， just some argumentation that humans can't associate past events with the current situation so they can't react properly。The final chapter has actionable advice to recognize situations that may lead to errors。 。。。more
Munthir Mahir
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Concise， direct and up to the point。 The Logic of Failure is an exploration of some of the prominent factors affecting our ability to plan and act。 Factors that are at no lack to anyone， but seem to slip away through our common sense （which just means our present and available brain capacity or capabilities）; factors such as temporal configurations， realizations of non-linear relationships， tendency to employ methodism， etc。 There are many factors affecting our planning and actions， of considera Concise， direct and up to the point。 The Logic of Failure is an exploration of some of the prominent factors affecting our ability to plan and act。 Factors that are at no lack to anyone， but seem to slip away through our common sense （which just means our present and available brain capacity or capabilities）; factors such as temporal configurations， realizations of non-linear relationships， tendency to employ methodism， etc。 There are many factors affecting our planning and actions， of considerable importance is the ability to track and monitor our actions。 Complex systems by definition are too complicated for us to be able to draw out single cause-effect relations， and as a matter of fact there are no such relations， cause-effect relations are compounded， interrelated and dependent。 The book describes many of these factors which I encourage everyone to explore。 Borrowing from the book， It is not possible to teach and learn all these factors， but a lot of simulated exposures can hone our common sense to the circumstances of a situation。 。。。more
Jake
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"On s'engage partout， et puis l'on voit" - Napoleon， which roughly translates to "One jumps into the fray， then figures out what to do next。"We live nonlinear lives。 When you fill up your gas tank， drive 50 miles and the fuel gauge barely budges， then you drive another 50 and it plunges。 That's a classic nonlinear relationship。 The math is hard， we hate doing that kind of math and we kid ourselves into believing that we can generalize such relationships。 We can't。 All we can do is recognize that "On s'engage partout， et puis l'on voit" - Napoleon， which roughly translates to "One jumps into the fray， then figures out what to do next。"We live nonlinear lives。 When you fill up your gas tank， drive 50 miles and the fuel gauge barely budges， then you drive another 50 and it plunges。 That's a classic nonlinear relationship。 The math is hard， we hate doing that kind of math and we kid ourselves into believing that we can generalize such relationships。 We can't。 All we can do is recognize that complex situations are hard and assess them as they come and not try to predict the future。I really like this book in that he believes heavily in simulations and steers away from real world anecdotes。 Failure has been a big part of my own life。 It's really easy for me to look at my own life experiences and try to extrapolate out， unduly。 For every complex situation， there is a solution that is clear， simple， but wrong。I think the most telling part of the book is when Dörner shows how humans by in large focus on as Donald Rumsfeld famously said "known-knowns" but we ignore the "known-unknowns"。 That inability for us to tackle problems that we know exist but are bad at dealing with can have cascading effects。"The world is richer than it is possible to express in any single language。" ~ Ilya Prigogine 。。。more
Jan
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Yikes。 Clearly I am not a very in-depth or perceptive problem solver。
Renee
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It was a good self-help book。 It made me notice things I do to prevent me from succeeding。 I highly recommend it。 The text is a bit dry， but if you can extract the information out of it， it will be worth your while。
Shicheng Huang
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Wish I have found this book earlier
Jared
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the author explore that most failure actually come from human ignorance。 be it the scholar， college student or any ordinary people。 Via deliberation & consciousness， the change of failure occurance may be diminished， not all lost all together though。 still its a good read。
George Anderson
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great
Bryant Macfarlane
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Great book。 Humorous yet insightful， Dörner points to the logical fallacy of our cognitive selves。 I'd definitely recommend this。 Great book。 Humorous yet insightful， Dörner points to the logical fallacy of our cognitive selves。 I'd definitely recommend this。 。。。more
JP
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Fantastic book， Expresses the logic of failure of decision。 So many experimental facts but found very difficult to understand the concept discussed in the last chapter coz too many information and facts。 I think the last chapter should have been distributed equally on previous chapters。 So raw， made to read few time before closing the book。 Thanks its a great voyage in decision making。A lovely book！
TheF7Pawn
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Herr Dorner gives us an important book that provides insights into human shortcomings in recognizing and dealing with complex situations。 It’s not that we’re not smart， but our cognitive processes are in turn， petulant， impatient， and lazy。 Happily， Dorner provides some assistance in meeting the challenge of complex situations; so， this volume has both theoretical and practical applications。 This work has important implications for military strategists， statesmen， and public policy practitioners Herr Dorner gives us an important book that provides insights into human shortcomings in recognizing and dealing with complex situations。 It’s not that we’re not smart， but our cognitive processes are in turn， petulant， impatient， and lazy。 Happily， Dorner provides some assistance in meeting the challenge of complex situations; so， this volume has both theoretical and practical applications。 This work has important implications for military strategists， statesmen， and public policy practitioners。 Dorner warns that youth and intelligence， well-intentioned though it may be， often come up woefully short when arrayed against complex systems。 He notes， contrary to Hollywood’s heroic and misleading imagery， that experience and the ability to learn from one’s mistakes， fare comparatively better。 These are timely admonitions to those who would try to “turn the world in the palms of our hand，” to use Al Stewart’s apt phraseology。 Despite the heavy subject matter， the writing is crisp and lucid; kudos to whomever translated it from German。 。。。more
Andrea James
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I gave this book five stars partly because I think decisions in complex situations are not explored enough and far too few people are paying sufficient attention to this problem。 Most aren't even aware that that they are not aware of the problem。I also gave this book five stars because it makes the subject accessible beyond academia。 A couple of examples from the book:"It seems likely that the capacity to tolerate uncertainty has something to do with how our participants behaved。 When someone si I gave this book five stars partly because I think decisions in complex situations are not explored enough and far too few people are paying sufficient attention to this problem。 Most aren't even aware that that they are not aware of the problem。I also gave this book five stars because it makes the subject accessible beyond academia。 A couple of examples from the book:"It seems likely that the capacity to tolerate uncertainty has something to do with how our participants behaved。 When someone simply walks away from difficult problems or “solves” them by delegating them to others， when someone is all too ready to let new information distract him from the problem he is working on at the moment， when someone solves the problems she can solve rather than the ones she ought to solve， when someone is reluctant to reflect on his actions， it is hard to see in such behaviour a refusal to recognise one’s importance and helplessness and a tendency to seek refuge in certainty and security。""We find a tendency under time pressure， to apply overdoses of established measures。 We find an inability to think in terms of nonlinear networks of causation rather than of chains of causation - an inability， that is， to properly assess the side effects and repercussions of one's behaviour。 We find an inadequate understanding of exponential development， an inability to see that a process that develops exponentially will， once it has begun， race to its conclusion with incredible speed。 These are all mistakes of cognition。"The author highlights the problem where one goal negates another but the different people making localised goals in various departments in an organisation do not see either the dangers of compounding aggregate risk or that their individual gain is at the cost of another department's loss。The book recommends greater reflection and also to use more simulations so that we can practice our decision-making skills。 I agree with this and will find ways of incorporating more simulations in my training programmes。It's a short， simple but important primer of a book。 。。。more
Andy
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The main gist of this book is that human beings don't always behave logically。 This is entirely valid， but not very interesting to me。 And anyway there are many other books on that topic。 The attraction of this book was the promise of something that could help to deal with "complex situations。" Unfortunately， the book is about computer simulations--NOT about "avoiding error" in the real world。 It makes sense to rely on sims when it's not possible to study something in the real world， for example The main gist of this book is that human beings don't always behave logically。 This is entirely valid， but not very interesting to me。 And anyway there are many other books on that topic。 The attraction of this book was the promise of something that could help to deal with "complex situations。" Unfortunately， the book is about computer simulations--NOT about "avoiding error" in the real world。 It makes sense to rely on sims when it's not possible to study something in the real world， for example with global warming。 Otherwise， it's preferable to look at what has actually worked。 If the author's games represented a good method for building skills in dealing with complex situations then he could test that prospectively in the real world。 But he offers no evidence that playing these games leads to good relevant outcomes。 。。。more
Stephen
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